A lot of people believe bitcoin is unpredictable, but most people don’t analyze bitcoin. I firmly believe it will be at $300 per bitcoin by mid-august 2014 or below that mark. $300 is a very liberal number, meaning based on the data available, I believe it should be below $300 by mid-august.
What bitcoin data are you using?
I know my prediction sounds crazy, but here is how I’ve come to this conclusion. August 1st, 2013 bitcoin was worth $97 and as of today it is worth $569. That seems like a huge jump and that things should keep going up, but the chart at coinbase begs to differ. Bitcoin hit a peak of $1,113 per bitcoin on December 1st, but ever since then it has been going downhill with occasional small spikes that are to be expected in any market. We are currently on one of those spikes, which is why one bitcoin is worth $569 dollars right now, but you can tell that this spike shouldn’t last long, since it has already dipped from being worth $600 and continues to go downwards. If you look over the entire market, you’ll see this pattern is very common.
Some companies have announced that they plan to accept bitcoin, like Dish, but they have not started accepting bitcoin yet. Also, it is important to ask yourself, how many people will pay their dish bill with bitcoin? Most likely not enough to cause a huge spike in the market, at least not by mid August 2014.
So, if you’re upset that bitcoin didn’t go up like you expected in mid- August 2014, just read my prediction. If I am wrong, then I am wrong. Bitcoin is fickle, but based on the data currently available it should go downwards, not upwards.